PSS FX Currency Trading, Forex, FX and Foreign Exchange

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.

Inflation, Gauge Symmetry, and the big Guh.
Sup retards, back at it with the DD/macro.
scroll to the rain man stuff after the crayons if you don't care about the why or how.
TLDR:
June 19 $250 SPY puts
May 20 $4 USO puts
SPY under 150 by January next year.

So I was going about my business, trying to not $ROPE myself as my sweet tendies I made during the waterfall of March have evaporated, however, I heard that the fed was adding another $2.3T in monopoly money to the bankers pile specifically to help facilitate these loan programs being rolled out.
In short, they are backing these dumb-ass, zero recourse, federally mandated, loans with printing press money.
But cumguzzler OP, your title is about inflation and guage simp--try, why are you talking about the fed #ban.
Well, when you print money it is an inflationary action in theory. Let me explain.

EDUMACATION TIME

What is inflation? Inflation is the sustained increase in the price level in goods and services. Inflation is derived from a general price index, and in the US, from the consumer price index. Knowing that inflation is an outcome, not a set policy is very important. Inflation is a measurement after the fact, much like your technical astrology indicators. (**ps, use order flow in your TA you wizards**)
HOWEVER, the actual act of buying bundles of these loans does not directly impact inflation.
Now what is Gauge symmetry? Gauge symmetry is a function of math and theoretical physics that can be applied to finance models. What a gauge is, is a measurement. Gauge symmetry is when the underlying variable of something changes, however, we do not observe that variable change.
A great example of this is if you and a friend are moving, and your friend is holding a box of tendies. The box is a cube, equal on all sides. If you turn away for a moment and she rotates the cube 90 degrees while you are not looking, and you look back - you would have no idea the cube was rotated. There was a very real change in the position of the cube in relation to space-time. Your friend acted on it. But you didn't measure it, in fact it would be impossible for you to determine if the box was changed at all if you weren't observing it. That movement of the box where you didn't observe it, is called gauge transformation and happens literally more then JPow fucks my mom in quantum physics. The object observably exactly the same even though it is not physically the same. The act of it existing as an observably the same box is gauge symmetry - it is by observation symmetrical.
Why this is important, is that fiat money doesn't have any absolute meaning. The value of $1 is arbitrary. furthermore, Inflation is a Guage symmetry. Inflation has no real impact on the real value of the underlying goods and services, but rather serves as a metric to measure the shift of value across a timeline.
When JPow starts pluggin' your mom along with all these balance sheets, there is a gauge symmetry event happening. The money he is printing is entering the system (gauge transformation), this isn't an issue if all pricing against the USD get shifted equally, however, the market is not accounting for this money because we don't have real-time data on what is being applied where, we only get a slow drip in terms of weekly and monthly reports. WE HAVE OUR EYES CLOSED. This is a gauge symmetry event.
When this happens in real terms, the market becomes dislocated from its real value price. Well how do we know there is a dislocation?
"YoU JuSt SaId tHe UnDeRlYiNg VaLuE iZ AbStRaCkKt HuRr QE aNd MaRkEtS Iz ComPlEx ReAd A TeXtBuK AbOuT FrAcTiOnAl ReSErVe BanKiNg YoU NeRd." - **anyone rationalizing the bull run**
We can look at Forex you fish.
USD lives in a bubble. The Yen is in a bubble, the RMB is in a bubble, and we exchange with each other. the Jap central bank has little effect on the CPI index (cost of goods and services) of the US. If the Yen prints a gazillion dollars, the USD is not effected EXCEPT in its exchange rate. YEN:USD would see a sizeable differential the more Yen is printed and vise-versa.
So NOW instead of JPow getting away with plowing your girlfriend, we can catch the bitch.
Instead of looking at the gauge transformation at face value and then giving up because it is symmetrical output, we can look and see if this gauge symmetry carries over to the foreign exchange market. Well guess what happens when you look at the value of the USD against foreign currencies.
Consistent uncertainty during the fed operations. Meaning the market of banks that partake in FX swaps don't know where to spot the USD. Generally a very very bad thing.
Value of the USD to Euro 2017-2020, notice the slow decline, then the chaos at the end
Above is the value of the USD to Euro, notice the sloping decline. The dollar has been growing weaker since 2017. At the end you see our present issues, lets #ENHANCE
USD to Euro, January 2020 to Present
When you see those spikes, those are days in between Fed action. The value of the US goes up when the fed doesn't print because people aren't spending. Non-spending is a deflationary event and has a direct impact on the CPI. However, each drop when you line up the dates, was a date of Fed spending.
Lets look outside of the Eurozone.

This is the RMB to USD. Yes China manipulates, but look at the end of the graph
China manipulated rates early in 2018 however you can see the steady incline upward towards the of 2018. More specifically, lets look at it since December.
RMB value against USD, January to Now
You Can see the Chinese RMB has been gaining steam since December, even with Chinese production falling off a cliff all through this pandemic.

What this rain man level autism means for the economy.

Looking across the board at Forex we can see the USD having a schizo panic attack jumping up and down like me at a mathematics lecture.
But what does all this gauge BDSM and shit have to do with the markets? Well it shows 1 of 3 things are occuring.
  1. The fed is printing money to offset deflationary pressures of the economy being fuk for the past month, and therefore all this printing is offset by the loss of liquidity throughout the system and we are all retared. (SECRET: THIS IS WHAT ALL THE INSTITUTIONS THINK IS HAPPENING AND WE WILL ALL BE FINE.)
  2. The deflationary event is overplayed, and JPow just is nailing his coffin together. This would result in long term hyperinflation similiar to the Weimar republic. The only hedge against this is to load up on strong currency that do not manipulate and have enough distance from US markets that they can have some safety (ironically the Ruble is the safest currency. Low link to the USD and not influenced by China, and on discount rn)
  3. The gauge transformation is actually not as severe as they are blurting out, the fed does not pass go, does not actually print 10 Trillion dollars, and this was all a marketing ploy to not get Trump involved and prop markets. In this case, the real deflationary event is real, the USD red rockets harder then my cock and we end up market-wise at a very high asset price in relation to real value. This one is most dangerous because it increases the real value of debt and has mass dislocation between real value and market cap. You took debt at a fixed interest rate and a fixed principal, this would cause the biggest GUH in history when all of a sudden you are $100 million in debt and your revenue was $50 million a year ago, but now is only $25 million. That $100 million in debt is still $100 million and now you have a credit crisis because past values of money were inflated. This spirals into a large scale solvency crisis of any company utilizing current growth methodology (levering up to your tits in debt)
In only 1 of these 3 scenarios do we see any sort of "good" outcome? That would be the offset of deflationary pressures.
It is very important to understand that inflation is only a measurement, and itself does not denote value of real goods and services.

Option 1 of a print fiesta that works (something similar to 1981-82) seems possible. A similar environment and reaction occured in the early 80s when the government brute-forced a bull run using these same offset theorems but in that situation, Volker at the fed had interest rates at 21.5% and had 20% to come down to stimulate the inflationary reaction.
Long term this would just lever up more debt and expanded the real wealth gap over time because we kicked the can down the road another 15 years. If that happens again socioeconomically I don't see capitalism surviving (yeah Im on my high horse get over it). This is the option that many fiscal policymakers and talking heads abide by and the reason why the markets are green. However, it is really just kicking it down the road and expanding real wealth inequality. You think Bernie Sanders is bad, wait until homes cost $3million dollars in Kentucky and AOC Jr comes around.

If we get option 2, we see hyperinflation and we turn into Zimbabwe, which is great, I've always wanted to see Africa. Long term we could push interest rate back to 1980 Volker levels and slowly revalue the US against real value commodities already pegged to the USD like oil. This would be a short term shock but because of international reliance on the USD system, we could slowly de-lever this inflation over 2-3 years and be back to normal capacity although the markets would blow their O-ring. Recession yes, but no long term depression.

If we get option 3, the worst long term option in my opinion, basically any company with any revolver line drawn down when that hits is going to go under, private equity won't touch it with a 20ft stick because cashflows couldn't possibly handle the debt on the end of the lever, and we see mass long term unemployment. The only way out of the spiral of option three is inflationary pressure from the fed+government, but because we are already so far down the rabbit hole at the current moment there's no fucking way we could print another 10 trillion. USD treasuries couldn't handle the guh and we would essentially be functionally forced into a long term (7-10 year) depression because nothing anyone could do would delever the value of the dollar. This would result in the long term collapse of the United States as a world power and would render us like Russia in 1991.

Thank you for coming to my ted talk.
submitted by TaxationIsTh3ft to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Any no fee banks that receive international wire transfers?

I've banked with Vancity since I was 12 years old, but now I'm not happy with their pay as you go account which requires $1000 deposited at all times to avoid fees, which I see as ~$30-$50/yr in fees since I'd rather invest 80-90% of it anyways.
As such, I've moved all my funds to Tangerine and while I'm quite satisfied with their online only and no fees approach, I was disappointed to find out they don't receive international wire transfers. I need to receive international wire transfers about 1-2 times per year (from myself), so I'm wondering if there's a bank with no fees chequing accounts and also receives wire transfers? Preferably at the same rate or cheaper than Vancity ($5 + Middle bank fees; no control over middle bank, but it's usually TD; totals to $30).
I could keep both Tangerine and Vancity, then I could just leave $5 in Vancity, and they'd take $1 in fees from me each time I use it thereafter. So if I limit my receives to max 2x per year, I could only get hit with max $4/yr in fees from Vancity, which is acceptable but I am wondering if there are better options out there so I can simplify to a one bank only approach.
PS. I know there are other options like TransferWise that do forex quite cheaply and would work with Tangerine but unfortunately the two countries (China & Korea) I'm trying to transfer from have strong currency outflow regulations and I've never seen a discount forex allow a transfer FROM those countries before; though they often will allow a transfer INTO the countries. However, if you do know of any reputable forex companies that work with China & Korea, please let me know :D.
submitted by OverallCricket6 to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

Genuine XRP potential? Single, double or triple $digits?

I see daily posts about this but very little substance providing mathematical justifications for XRP price potential.
Can anyone offer some decent insight here?
I keep thinking back to six months ago when bitcoin market cap was pretty much one tenth of what it is now, and people saying “it won’t surpass bitcoin market cap”
Well it pretty much has past that market cap this week. Hindsight is great.
So, does anyone have proper mathematical judgements on price points for XRP?
My view:
1) Current demand should push prices up beyond $1.50-2.00 in the short term. Basing this on the fact that there is an unbelievable amount of users still unable to trade and that many exchanges have reported 000,000’s backlog of new customer verifications. Market cap becomes c$58Bn bottom end.
2) Coinbase (basically inevitable now, despite the hoax images, XRP is a good fit for them and there’s incredible demand for XRP) should push price about double, if not possibly a tad more. So pragmatically we go from $1.50 to $3.00. Market cap goes to $116Bn, still pretty low.
3) Some demand ports from BCH and BTC, possibly Short-middle term puts price at $3.5-4.5Bn. Market cap becomes $135Bn bottom end.
4) Testing with banks gets through into alpha and beta. Liquidity increases and supply inevitably drops due (inspite of regular escrow release) to banks holding a higher fixed quantity of XRP for cross-boarder payments. This is the big one, even smaller end bank demand could need billions of XRP to Service it (assuming no alternative IOU used). Figure the price could be anywhere from $4.5-$15.00 here depending on adopt rate and necessary XRP-flow (currency cash flow) requirements. Let’s say really pragmatically, just $7.00 due to slow adoption and some banks opting for IOU or another non-Ripple inter-ledger based solution. Market cap becomes $266Bn. Still pretty low really, lower than BTC is now (well... it’s close...).
5) It’s easy to forget but this is still very much an emerging technology and we’re all pretty much early adopters here. I’d be surprised if we have seen even 5% of the adoption thus far in crypto and specifically into XRP. Let’s for the sake of being hyper-pragmatic call it a moderately (as opposed to emergent) adopted market. It’s realistic to envisage that there’s at least a x3-4 consumer demand-base. Let’s shoot low and say x2 volume demand adopt. That potentially puts the $7.00 to $14.00. Market cap still really rather modest (considering the crypto market cap growth from $50.00Bn > $100.00Bn > $200.00Bn > $300.00Bn etc), at $532Bn.
6) We could have some massive retailer such as the much muted Amazon/UbeAirBnB/Apple etc innovate the market and adopt the ledger tech, even if not for consumer-facing services (e.g. just for their business transactions). Let’s say a less exciting retailer, such as maybe Huawei or maybe eBay adopts it and drives the innovation here. That could foreseeably add 20-200% on the demand due to expanded and demonstrable real-use case. Let’s say it add just 20% short term (and ignore long term for now, as it’s ridiculously speculative). $14.00 becomes $16.80 and market cap still well within one trillion at $638Bn.
7) Let’s not even mention replacement of SWIFT, VISA and international forex demand which exceeds $5Tn daily volume. Again, way too speculative.
8) Let’s consider that large portions of the supply are being hoarded by investors and banks, or even retailers along with many Ripple employees and associates. This could and should create a vacuum and compound demand easily by 10-50%. Lets day 10%. $18.48, or market cap at $792Bn.
9) I won’t mention depreciation and burn rate of XRP because I’ve not mentioned release of escrow, which could (but is unlikely to) max at 1Bn new XRP per month for a few years. But burn rate significantly increases as liquidity does.
10) XRP used more widely for a significantly increased number of currency pairings on the larger exchanges, e.g. XRP/ETH, XRP/LTC, XRP/BCH etc. Immediately much more accessible and lower transaction costs to trade/move currency. Really unsure of how this could affect the price but it’s clear it will improve liquidity, burn rate, demand and exposure of XRP. I’ll leave this one out of the maths here.
Just some basic linear maths (excluding escrow release), with some fairly reasonable and pragmatic assumptions can quite easily put XRP well above $10.00. I really don’t see how XRPs price is as low as $1.00-1.25?
I’m sure I’ve probably missed loads off this too but the way I (perhaps wishfully) see things is that there’s an offensively large amount of growth here, and hence so many awesome hodlers kicking around in Reddit.
🍻 🥂
Keen to understand the more reasonable community feedback on this topic. Rather than the usual “YEA MAN IT’LL BE $1,000.00 IN THREE DAYS” crew.
PS I do hope it’s $1,000.00 in three days but I won’t hold my breath!
submitted by Machinedaena7 to Ripple [link] [comments]

Student strikes back at lecturers idea. You won't believe what happens next!

Last year I took a management class as an extra class for points. Little did I know that the main lecturer would spend the whole semester preaching socialisty ideas at us. There was a lot of interesting stuff in the class really as it was mainly about labour-management relationships, but whenever she presented her ideas about the economy it often left me cringing. The best is when she got all exasperated claiming she couldn't understand how productivity and wages were linked.
Anyway. She presented us the idea based off a portion of this video suggesting it could be good for the New Zealand economy, I’d like to R1 the first idea of hers (Mods said I could!). She made us discuss the idea of Reducing the work week without reducing pay, implementing profit sharing and management-labour wage gap restrictions. This would be voluntary as governments would offer to cover a company’s payroll taxes in exchange for implementing these 3 things.
I am not R1ing the 20 year old video I am R1ing my lecturers idea based on this in a New Zealand context, the idea it’s from is at around 37 minutes.
I’ll admit I don’t know much about taxation, but according to the oecd website, New Zealand doesn’t actually have a payroll tax. Oops. What if the government legislates reduced work week and same pay in then? Well, I’m going to attempt to use the 3-equation model to see what would happen.
I’m basing this off the idea that this law would be a supply shift, shifting the wage setting curve upwards, just like unions not exercising bargaining restraint in context of wages. I’m trying to keep the model simple because I did this course a year ago, but feel free to criticise and/or correct me.
Assumptions: - wage setters define price level using domestic price level so ERU is vertical.
q= nominal exchange rate (^ = depreciation). r = real exchange rate. pi= inflation. N = employment, y = real output. w/p= real wage.
Enjoy my beautiful hand drawn graphs
Period 0: Start at equilibrium point A. Government introduces legislation, Wage Setting curve shifts upwards, Now there is a difference between equilibrium real wage and real wage, inflation increases(point B). Central bank forecasts the new PC and sets at point C, forex market predicts r>r*, central bank knows this so sets r0 on the RX curve. Forex will cause currency to appreciate and overshoot.
Period 1 onwards: The higher r0 and appreciated q0 cause disinflation, IS curve at point C. Real wages are lower. Economy will gradually shift from point C to point Z. Currency will depreciate to new appreciated equilibrium level, Inflation will return to target, real wage will return to old equilibrium level, real interest rates will return to world rate r*. Lower equilibrium employment and output ( Ye’ IF that doesn’t make sense, just ignore and look at my pretty graph.
I know you don't usually include the ws ps graph as it's shown through the ERU but I wanted to include the visual about real wages. And I made a mistake of labeling it PC not PS on the graph.
So what I get from this model is that the legislation probably wouldn’t improve real wages, but it would result in a lower rate of equilibrium employment/output and an appreciated real exchange rate. This doesn’t seem like it would have the desired effect of sharing the gains of production, or increasing employment. More leisure time though so yay.
submitted by gotschwifted to badeconomics [link] [comments]

Suggestions for a healthy longlived server

I'm coming at this with years of RO experience, and the advice of friends who play at the top of WoE, PvM, and PvP. I have also been a GM on 3 servers and an admin on one, and asked for advice from two friends who have been admins on their own successful low rate servers. Additionally, I have some experience with editing the source files and redesigning the game a bit, not that I will get much into that, but I do know what is and isn't possible. I also have experience from other games such as WoW (as a world and arena PvPer at the highest levels), and from political and economic games such as EVE and bloc. Finally, I have some real life knowledge of economics (though I wouldn't call myself an economist) due to being a FOREX trader.
All of that and more has lead to my understanding of game design, some of which I can apply here.
I realize that this is a long post, but that's because I got the input from several people and put (a little bit of) effort into explaining the reasoning. If any of these things are being discussed in other threads, pardon me and just let me dump all of my opinions into one place, as they are largely interconnected.
Most of my suggestions are based on sustainable gameplay, sustainable economy, rewarding players for their decisions, and giving players more freedom. I tried to keep the changes, for the most part, quite vanilla. I have some much better ideas that require customization, but most players recoil at the thought of customization in RO.
I'll start with the unquestionable and move to the debatable.

No donor or normally unavailable items with unique stats.

This means there should be no items with dex on mid or lower. No upper headgears with more than 3 dex, etc. Basically, no overpowered donor items or ones that disrupt normal player balance. Adding a single dex to a build can be incredibly imbalanced, which is why I used dex as an example, but this applies to lots of stats.
Not only can it be imbalanced, but it causes item inflation as well. When players no longer need to hunt for gear (because they replace it with donor or custom quest items), lots of gear becomes either worthless and thus overupgraded to abnormal degrees or obsoleted.
On the same token, this means not allowing BG items to be used outside of BGs, including in WoE or anywhere else. It's devastating to the economy. WoE is a competition between guilds, not just to conquer castles, but to acquire enough resources to do it.
IMO the only items players should be able to donate for are cosmetic, and perhaps things like battle manuals and maybe bubble gum, which have no direct impact on gameplay other than to reduce the grind. But really, cosmetic items should be enough if you're clever. There's one suggestion on this down in the zeny sink section.

Set strict rules for GMs to follow, and don't give them more power than they need.

If all of that sounds paranoid to you, then you're going to end up with GM problems. Even if you trust your GMs with your life, you need to set guidelines. You can't read their minds, even if they are your best friends. They are going to use their own discretion, and that might vary widely from your own decisions, unless you give them strict guidelines.
Not only will this make the GMs better, but it'll give you more confidence in their decisions when players complain, and allow you to handle the inevitable drama better, thus preserving the playerbase.
I have seen a GM go on /vg/ and talk shit to the players there, unbeknownst to the admin.

A PvP room where consumables (with the possible exception of conc/awakening/berserk pots) are disabled, and where all buffs are removed upon entering.

The main interest of many other players, is PvP (not GvG/WoE). Unfortunately, PvP is often woefully underrepresented in server design decisions. PvP is incredibly disinteresting when using dex food and potion spamming, and when getting SL/Assump/etc from outside. Leave the consumable spam and buff stacks to WoE and PvM. Also, please don't use a shitty map for the PvP room.
You can, of course, have two PvP rooms, so this shouldn't be a controversy.
On RaptureRO, there was also a 3v3 PvP arena tournament, which was incredibly fun. Takes some scripting though and isn't top priority.

A draw range of 18+, preferably around 20 to 24.

I'm referring to /conf/battle/client.conf area_size. The default is 14, which is an antiquated value meant to reduce stress on PCs made back in 2000. There are actually mobs that can aggro from outside of your view range, which is quite dumb. There is no reason to use a lower draw range, except for artificial difficulty.
Successful servers like Rapture, ProjectRage, Destina, etc, had an increased the draw range without issue. Newer players won't even notice a difference.
If you are afraid of client lag in WoE (there shouldn't be any, but just in case) you can simply script an NPC to automatically change the area_size value before and after WoE. It doesn't require a reset of anything, not even an @reloadscript.

Turn up the party exp bonus.

Simple enough, makes it worth leveling as a party instead of leeching yourself with a hunter (the normal method for leveling most things as fast as possible).

Take proactive steps to limit zeny inflation and promote a player-driven economy.

Zeny inflation is one of the biggest problems for the longevity of any RO server. The game was not designed in a way to have a stable economy. You must tweak a few things to get something workable. I'll talk about item inflation a bit later:

Roll out content in waves

It's a suggestion I heard elsewhere and it's a good one. Start with trans disabled and less dungeons available. Gradually release more as the server grows and people hit higher levels. This is a good idea for a few reasons:

Consider splitting the server into a pure-WoE server and a non-WoE server

This might at first sound unappealing by splitting up the playerbase, but it allows you to more easily design both servers to fit their respective playerbases. Also keep in mind that many of the players from each server will play on both servers. Only a minority will be exclusive to one.
Potion spamming completely trivializes a large portion of the game's content and reduces the skill ceiling dramatically. It reduces the importance of healing abilities, eliminates the need for mana efficiency, imbalances PvP (asura spam is a lot harder when you can't just mash blue pots, for example. The same goes for SinXs and White Smiths with white pots, and so on). In PvP, abilities that are not 1HKOs become nearly worthless, due to white pot spam. This reduces ordinarily incredibly complex jobs like champ, to nothing more than asura-machines. Additionally, no pot spam means that if a champ wants to spam asura in PvM, he needs a Professor. This concept applies to other classes as well.
In WoE, potion spamming is necessary to survive. In the rest of the game, though, potion spam ruins much. No WoE means no need for pot spamming.
The rest of my suggestions assume that you aren't going with this suggestion, so bear that in mind.

Misc

PS: Yeah you can't upgrade Orlean's gloves, but it could at least become a decision between +1 dex vs. +2 dex and -1 vit or -1 def, or something, instead of just "yeah these are better than or equal to regular gloves in every way". There's literally no reason to farm gloves because you don't need gloves to farm Orlean's gloves. That's how it works for a lot of older gear, and it's not a good thing.
Ideally, newer gear should scale better than older gear, but not be better inherently. You won't be able to do it with everything, but every bit helps to stave off inflation and inevitable server death.

PvP enabled on MVP maps.

This is controversial, but hear me out. I think this can, by itself, increase the longevity of a server dramatically, while solving a plethora of problems as well.
MVPs are a scarce resource, and players often compete for them. Normally this leads to a meta of trying to out-grief other players. Instead, with PvP enabled, you could fight for the MVP. It changes the competition into a meaningful part of the game, rather than a rat race. This will be especially important on a high population server.
And remember the costume hat idea? Now people can fight for the boxes that low level MVPs drop, creating competition over the usually worthless MVPs, and reason to go out and play the game.
Particularly challenging content, like bio3, will be extremely difficult to clear if players are trying to kill you. This will encourage diplomacy and cooperation between players (as seen in sandbox games like EVE, DayZ, etc). Either you work with the other group, or you become rivals. This is good for the health of a server. The increased difficulty will also increase the longevity of the server by reducing the rate at which players clear the content and collect the gear.
There's the other added benefit of making it more of a challenge to reach max level in places like Abbey3. You might want to turn on PvP in Thor1 for the same reason. Again, players can choose to work together or make enemies while leveling in these high level zones. And, again, the increased difficulty increases server longevity by reducing the average rate at which players progress.
Finally, you can have mobs on PvP maps drop white and blue herb boxes, and spawn on timers. This way, players can compete for the resources they need in WoE, rather than grind for days. You can use regular white/blue herb boxes, or use WoE-only potion drops and have them drop in somewhat higher quantities. The more generalized the drop is, the fewer should drop, to have a smaller impact on the overall economy. Players who don't WoE can simply sell the WoE pots to WoE players, so they have just as much reason to compete for the mobs.
Since the WoE players need these resources to win WoE, they'll fight each other for the resources between WoEs, reducing the boredom. It also gives every high level player a thing to look forward to doing: world PvP. Something that pretty much never gets old. Just make sure that the mobs are scarce enough that you don't make it too easy to collect herbs/pots. It's supposed to be a supplementation to normal farming, to make it easier in a fun/competitive way.
This change will have no impact on low level players. I have seen this done and it works beautifully. If you're imagining constant fighting between players on every MVP map, you're forgetting that there are dozens of MVP maps. Most maps are usually empty, especially at certain times of day.
You will probably need to turn off teleporting and memo on non-dungeon maps to prevent things like champs from running in with asura in relative impunity.
As far as players who are disinterested in PvP go, remember that there are instanced dungeons now. There are also dungeons in which it's highly unlikely that you'll run into other players due to quest requirements: Thanatos, Vesper, Ktullanux, probably a few others I'm forgetting. You could just turn PvP off on those maps for that matter.
You also have the option of disabling PvP on some other MVP maps if you feel that's necessary.

BGs

If you go with my last suggestion, I'd LOVE it if you simply don't include BGs on the server. In my opinion, BGs are a terrible and trivialized bastardization of RO PvP. They're tedious and unfun, and unnecessary when you have world PvP, a PvP room, and WoE.
However, if you're going to include BGs, then:
submitted by BuddhistSC to ggRO [link] [comments]

[Table] IAmA: I am Timothy Sykes: Ask Me Anything

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2014-04-22
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Questions Answers
So you've managed to be in the green during the years when any idiot could throw darts at a dart board for stock picks and derive gains. What happens when a bear market comes along? LOL I love my haters/doubters, why are u all so inept? I do BETTER IN BEAR MARKETS, I'M A SHORT SELLER YOU MORON! LOLOLOLOLOL.
You also manage less than $4M and only have $1M in your trading accounts right now. I wouldn't trust a lot of the people I know with more than that in their accounts for advice (and neither would they, that's why their money is managed by others). So, what exactly is it that makes you qualified to give advice for long term success for other investors to follow you? I could trade with $20 million and probly make $10-15 mil/year but then i wouldnt be able to teach which i love more.
Do you know the success rate of all of your subscribers as a whole, including the ones that didn't stick through your "program", do you have any stats? Not just the two millionaires? U can see alll my students trades, add up the profits, go fetch, Link to profit.ly
LOL I love my haters/doubters, why are u all so inept? I do BETTER IN BEAR MARKETS, I'M A SHORT SELLER YOU MORON! LOLOLOLOLOL. As a sell-side analyst who has worked on Wall Street for several years and has met analysts and portfolio managers at the largest hedge funds and investment banks in the world, I'd like to ask everyone reading this a question: would you entrust your life savings to a guy who talks like this? Do you think the people at Goldman Sachs or Third Point talk like this? The good thing is i dont manage other people's money, all i do is teach lessons i've learned over 15 years...ignore my rules at your own risk, nobody forces u to learn them...
How did that hedge fund you started work out? I was the #1 ranked short bias hedge fund for 3 years and then tried investing as i got too greedy...overall made 2%/year over 4 years, still #1 ranked in my category, see details Link to tim.ly i accept your apology for your laziness.
I do BETTER IN BEAR MARKETS. Have you traded in a bear market before? Because to me it looks like you started trading shortly after the crash. i could trade with $20 million and probly make $10-15 mil/year. Then why not put more money into your trading account, it's not like holding more than half your in assets in cash is somehow going to improve your awesome performance? but then i wouldnt be able to teach which i love more. If you love it so much, why don't you offer it at a more discounted rate than $1200/year per person? For that much money most people could buy all the best investing books on the shelves. Are yours somehow better than everyone who has come before you? As well, at $1200/year, if you only have 10k in your account, that's 12%/year. For 12% a year you could hire some of the best money managers in the world, or even for a flat rate fee, you could find at least a half-decent financial planner. What advantages do you offer over those people? u can see alll my students trades, add up the profits. After factoring in relative risk, and performance relative to the market, how does this fare? I mean if all your students at so successful why not display that front and center on your page, I'm sure it'd draw in more customers and there would be more faith in your advice. Your own success and the success of a few hand picked students isn't a lot to go on. How do you become a better sprinter, do you ask the world's fastest sprinter, or their coaches? Do you judge these coaches based on the performance of the most skilled students (who likely had an innate ability to begin with), or do you assess them based on the sustained increase in performance across the board, relative to other coaches? Generally the guy with $500k in his bank account is going to have an easier time making 1M than the guy with $5k in his account is. I'm not hating on you, I'm just asking why some of this data hasn't been gathered to show just how successful your students have been, relative to the rest of the people in the markets they've been trading in. go fetch. Are you aware of what selection bias and survivorship bias are? Also have you considered offering a full refund for people who have blown up their account after buying your books? Where do you see your investment future headed with these sizable gains so quick in your short career? Do you think your performance will compare to that of Berkshire Hathaway, or the Medallion Fund in the long term? Yes i've traded bear markets, i made my 2nd million dollars 2000-2002, u have a long comment but u didnt bother researching me so i have no time for lazy people, sorry!
In the wake of Flash Boys, if you could recreate the market to your specs how would you want it? Single exchange? No maketaker? No darks? Trading pauses? Cancel fees? No Internalization? People whine too much, i could care less about HFTs.
Why does google have more scam accusations than success stories when I search your name? Because i expose scams and those scammers spread lies...already sued one penny stock promoter and won, but their skillset is spreading misinformation on the internet so it works well to smear me...but they couldnt stop Link to tim.ly or Link to tim.ly and as i create more millionaires, more people will realize i'm 100% right...until then let the haterade flowww.
I love how so many of the people asking questions here are ~5 hour old accounts...Got a bunch of your students pumping and dumping your AMA too? I just sent the link out to everyone we dont give a crap about reddit, stupid hater.
My question keeps disappearing for some reason. ??? On a $15,000 account, what position size ($) would you risk, max, and what % gain target would you shoot for to minimize risk in partial fills/no-fills? I know this depends greatly on volume. I answered it in long before, no time for double questions.
You are quite the heartless prick. You publicly laugh at all the traders when your short brigade tanks a stock price. Has anyone recognized you in public, walked up and threatened you? Nah actually everyone who meets me is very thankful for my tireless work and EDUCATION...anyone who hates on education deserves to be poor.
Do you want to eventually settle down with a wife and have kids and get out of the spotlight?? And do you ever get tired of the fame? Of course but i never get tired of trading/teaching.
What indicators do you use to find earnings/contract winners? What news sources do you read through? How do you find them? Go watch Link to timothysykes.com
2pac or biggie? Eminem.
If you're so fucking rich why do you need to sell shit? Why did you make this AMA? To get more customers. Those who can't do, teach. Link to www.timothysykes.com
You're a typical lazy, inept hater, u accuse before u do research, sad.
Tim, big fan, love the instagram photos. Quick question, why not use options to position for trades (assuming they are availalbe in a particular name at all), rather than long/short? I've had problems getting margin approval (long story) even though i make six figures a year, so buying calls and puts is where im at right now. thoughts? Less serious question, "on a scale of Moses to Hitler" (Andy Samburg quote), how Jewish do you consider yourself? Favorite brand of coffee? Favorite toy? My stocks arent usually optionable, oh how i wish they were :) i dont drink coffee and no time for toys.
TIM SYKES. If you had a son or daughter, which majors would you want them to study? STEM field? Liberal arts? Other. Pic related: Link to i.imgur.com. College is useless, I'd want them to live and learn in the real world.
How was the conversation with Wolf when you guys ended the little Twitter war? What caused that whole mess? It was me probing whether he was a stock promoter or not and i'm confident that he's just a naive newbie.
Are you familiar with BullsOnWallstreet? What do you think of their trading education, chatroom, and hedgefund? Yah, nice guys but i dont know their teachings/track record, try to get them to post publicly on profitly.
What % of your income is from trading, what % from subscribers/dvds/marketing etc.? Link to mixergy.com
Hi Tim, what advice would you give a new trader with a very small account ~$500. on the best way to grow the account over time? Focus on volatile stocks and realize my top student started with just $1500 and turned it into $1.71 million in 3 years...anything is possible if u study and work ahrd.
Tim, what is the tech analysis software you use in all of your video lessons. Is it thinkorswim? Its Etrade PRO but I don't recommend them -- I only use them as I'm superstitious and have made too many millions of dollars with them over 15 years...Otherwise I'd recommend Link to stockstotrade.co as it has great scanning/screening tools too.
Tim, as happy as I've been with my Silver sub so far, I was a day trader for four years in forex and am a bit burned out on it. But I do love swing and positional trading and have really fallen in love with options over the last six months. Right now I am thisclose to buying Tim Longterm. Do you get a lot of optional stocks in the TL program? Cool yes timlongterm has more optional stocks.
How did you become interested in the stock market? Read Link to timothysykes.com
How has your self-made wealth changed your lifestyle? Yes i live very well now :)
Where do you see yourself in five years? Depends how many millionaire students i can create.
Was trading stocks your first career choice? I never thought about careers, i just made a ton of $ when i was young and liked doing that so i wanted to do it more.
Tim, I've been a silver sub for about three weeks now and have made some nice trades and done well so far, including a sweet +13% on ARTX (would have made more if I'd waited for it to break support). But I haven't seen any of the big-spike penny pumps happening so far. How often do you see them happening? Cool, big spike penny pumps were every day in dec, jan, feb...they'll be back but u just missed the busiest season in 15 years.
How would you invest / what would you buy for $100 ? I'd buy a good sushi lunch for that amount, it's too low for stocks.
How much does it cost to become one of your students? Go look Link to timothysykes.com prices rising soon too so i'd lock in current prices for life if i were u.
I should've clarified, how much is it to become one of your millionaire challenge students? Depends, we offer different options, gotta apply and be accepted first anyway.
Differences between the Tim Sykes Challenge and the silver membership? See Link to timothysykes.com
Do you regularly give talks/seminars at colleges and universities. Would you ever consider coming to a smaller university to give a lecture on stock trading and smart investing? Yes hit up Link to timothysykes.com
What do you think about forex? I just started larning about forex, because here in méxico there is not much information about penny stocks; and As i said before I want to make the amount to take you challenge. Too low odds of success for me to care.
How backed up are your email responses for trader challenge requests? And what is the difference between silver and being accepted into the challenge. And by differences i'm referring to benefits. 75,000 emails or so.
Thoughts on fspm? Below technical resistance so its irrelevant.
When you were growing up Tim, in your teens, did you look into the future and want to be wealthy? Was it a dream of yours to be where you are today or did you decide so much later on? Always wanted to be wealthy, thought i needed to go to a good school & get job on wall street to make it happen.
When you first started out.. How did you handle the stress when you weren't trading? I'm having some crazy up days $12k+ and then when I make a shitty trade and lose $3k I wanna throw something... No stress if u stick to rules...i didnt have rules at first and that was stressful...i didnt have a mentor either...luckily for u with me in the picture u now have both :)
Dear Tim, I have a dream of making an automated trading machine out of your system, I have experience and the trading floor access. In your opinion, why shouldn't it work ? (I can automate: market research, stock picks, technical indicators, risk management, money management etc.) Do it up, i'm sure it would work I just havent had the time and I'm more interested in teaching people to be self-sufficient.
When did you start trading? Go read Link to timothysykes.com and stop being so lazy.
Would you accept a deal to start being your student? I sent an email but i'd like to know what do you think, if the answer is not, it's ok; but i want to know what do you think; No time for deals, only looking for dedicated students.
Any plans to expand the conference / speaking opportunities for you and your other gurus? I loved the Vegas event and think there is a large opportunity for smaller, regional Saturday events. Thoughts? Ha nah in person events are a biatch, focus on online teaching is better.
I have to ask how often do you check twitter for hot news/tips? Also have you heard of Mark Gomes he is more like long term investor. I can't do margin on my ira so lose out on a lot of opportunities when trading. Gotta let the funds settle. I could care less about news/tips, I'm ALWAYS searching for good patterns though.
Amazing call on artx I'm now number 1 in my finance class stock game Nice!
I'm 23 years old, looking for stock investment options. What type of stocks should I be looking at with about $500 to spend? Nothing, forget about investing with $500 and learn trading, watch these free videos Link to tim.ly
On a $15,000 account, what position size ($) would you risk, max, and what % gain target would you shoot for to minimize risk in partial fills/no-fills? I know this depends greatly on volume. I am more aggressive in my trading when my account is small, I'd use 30-50% per play but watch the play like a hawk...for example I shorted ARTX yesterday at 4.50, today it dropped to 3.90...if i had $15k I would've shorted 1,500 at 4.50 and tried to cover at 4ish today to lock in $750 profit...then rinse and repeat and gradually grow the account.
How much money do you have in your checking account right now? I dunno exactly, a few million last time I checked.
How often do you take money out of your trading account to spend? monthly, quarterly, annually or as needed? Annually.
Hey Tim I am a big follower of yours on twitter and am considering purchasing your news letter. I got lucky and got in some marijuana stock in November and pretty much didn't look at it until February when I sold. I quickly found out how lucky I was afterwards by not taking profits on other stocks I had purchased. I was looking for another 10 bagger and quickly realized how rare it is for that to happen. My question for you is what type of percentage gains do you look for before securing profit? Nice, normally i go for 10-30% gains, watch Link to tim.ly
What is the best product on your site to strictly see your stock picks? The best bang for my buck? My newsletters at Link to timothysykes.com but picks do little good without knowledge/education behind WHY I am trading them.
Last one from me. I know you say to not be long before ERs but what do you think about Facebook with their upcoming ER ? Last time they jumped $10 but with the WhatsApp acquisition their stock has fallen back to where it was before last ER. Don't guess on earnings.
You say college is useless, and I agree. What do you think should change in the education system to make it more relevant? I'm doing EXACTLY what i think more teachers and their students should be doing.
What's the douchiest thing you've ever seen? Too many characters needed, basically any Wall Street/Murray Hill party/event.
What would happen if too many people caught on to your short sale strategy? What strategy would you then adopt? I was hoping that would happen when I first got into teaching so I could get more sleep! Sadly only a few people take the time to learn...I also buy and am up 100% in 4 months in 2014 mostly buying too.
Where can I find more information about the event in Harvard? Just moved to Boston. U cant it sold out within minutes but we'll have it recorded for ya!
Thank you for the AMA and your reply. I bought your DVDs recently, but haven't finished. What ratio would you say your income is based on, trading vs. teaching? I ask because I think I would prefer teaching, but I need to learn first. So should I be learning to teach, or learning to just invest personally? Teaching vs trading is something like 10-1...the cool thing is EVERYONE wants to be rich, the sad part is not many are willing to study hard to get there.
Hey TIM, I am a Pennystocking Silver member for about 2 months now and have been trying to figure out what is the maximum size position you can take when long on a stock? How do you know when to buy 100 shares or 100,000 shares? I have been making sure not to buy more than 2% of a stocks daily trading volume, I think I heard that in one of your DVDs, is that accurate? There is no set maximum or minimum, every play is different...just gotta be comfortable and understand your risk/reward BEFORE making the trade and then stick to the rules during the trade.
Any recommendation to control overtrading? Btw I am flying all the way from Miami to Boston to be at Harvard on saturday, someday not too far I will be one of your top students :) As I say in my Link to timothysykes.com DVDs, I try to think of myself as a retired trader who only comes out of retirement for the perfect setups when I know I'll feel guilty missing...otherwise I'm retired ALL the time, understand?
In An American Hedge Fund you mention that you met a trading coach at a large hedge fund you were interviewing for. Later you said you bought all his books. Would reccommend his books/ mind sharing his name? It was Dr. Ari Kiev, sadly he died, but he's written some great books, use Google.
Besides your book that I enjoyed, do you have a few other books you would recommend? Yes go read Link to investimonials.com
How did you know to short it since it gapped down right at open? I shorted yesterday, see my video lesson I sent out mid-day yesterday too.
How long do you think BIOF will stay up before it will start going down? and what is holding it so far? Irrelevant chart pattern, gotta focus on Link to tim.ly patterns if you want better odds.
Tim! Which actress do you think is the hottest? I like Scarlett Johansson a lot! (and thanks for changing my life!) Nobody can compete with my girlfriend :)
Make sure she reads that post ;) I will :)
Who would win in a fight you or superman(supertrades)? Superman, he's strong and fit, I'm overworked and out of shape.
Here's my question: What is your favourite stock? Also you should come into this chat: Link to webchat.freenode.net. It is the official unofficial chat for /wallstreetbets -- a sub which adores your trading style. Thanks for taking the time. Link to tim.ly
Hey Tim, huge fan, ive watched ALL of your DvD's expect for the how to read SEC filings. And i've been following your exact strategy for finding stock picks that you showed in your TIMfundamentals part deux DvD but i never find the same one's that you trade, for example ARTX did not come up on my watchlist. Did you change your strategy on finding stock picks? If so, what's new? Link to profit.ly
Have you ever considered world domination? Nah thats boring, my focus is world education.
I haven't read all about the challenge information yet, but how much is the amount I have to bring in ? Different for everyone first u need to apply and get accepted Link to tim.ly
Can you make a gif animation of you flying to da moon and post it every time you tell us your stock picks? Sure I'll put it on my to do list.
Tim I am I college student and I started trading this year mostly because of your story. I have bought into the company TWD (tweed marijuana inc.) Do you have any suggestions for me? Ps, they're all just haters. Cool, the companies don't matter and TWD's chart is a mess, focus on Link to tim.ly patterns.
Right on, is the Vegas conference going to be a DVD also this year or is that the video you are talking about? BTW can't wait for the conference this year hopefully its the best one yet. Nah brand new DVD going over all the basics.
I'm low on funds so more newsletters or getting equity feed? About the same price so just pick one Data is cheap, good information from newsletters is more useful, use Link to tim.ly sale while its still on.
Hey Tim, I was accepted to your challenge but was unaware about needing $7500 to begin. Any way around that? I think what you do and how you help people is great. I'm guessing you have someone answering your emails so I thought this was the best way. Thanks. Gotta invest in your financial education, my program is a steal given the value of what u learn...skimp out on everything in life, but not education.
To start off, you are my biggest inspiration for trading stocks. That being said, in the future I would love to trade with you like Tim G and your other students in the Maldives or other crazy places you go. I currently trade my own strategies and am making pretty good money. Do I need to become one of your challenge students to hang out/trade with you? Yup Link to tim.ly students get first dibs on everything.
Hi Tim, TimAlerts subscriber here, When you started out with $12,500 what was the lowest your account went to in the beginning, did your ever drop below $10,000 ? Go and look at the first 1,000 blog posts on Link to timothysykes.co i tracked EVERY trade.
Hello Tim, Big fan here & Silver Subscriber! Been watching a lot of your videos and I've read your book. I live in Denmark, so a lot of brokers won't accept me as a customer. Only broker I can find is SureTrader. What do you think? Cool i use suretrader they have shorts every now and then.
Do you lift? I used to, no time now.
Tim! I've been following you now for a while and have learned a great deal from you! I live in Boston and would love to come see your talk! Is there ANY WAY I can get a ticket?? Cool, sorry my Harvard talk sold out within minutes, but it'll be recorded.
What trading platform do you use? Read Link to tim.ly multiple brokers.
What is the best path i should take if i want to be sitting beside you on your next yacht adventure? Apply at Link to tim.ly then study your butt off!
Do you watch game of thrones? If not you should get on it. Yes its great, wish I had more time to watch them all a second time.
What do you think about the wild west of cannabis stock trading and do you think that it stands apart from the internet .com boom since it is ACTUAL product as opposed to a dozen guys in an office? Are they good for long term investments aside from possible law retractions being an obvious danger? Just the latest stock market sector craze, little different from nanotechs, 3d printing oil, gold, ethanol, alternative energy...pump and dump, NOT longterm holds.
How long will your 60% off newsletter be on? I want to buy it but my money is locked up in the market and will take about a week for me to have enough to get it. tia Just a few days more we cant have Link to tim.ly sale last forever!
Thanks for doing your AMA Tim! I currently am a TimAlerts subscriber and saving money to start trading some day as a (succesfull) European student of yours. I saw you are going to speak at Harvard in a few days, will there be a video of it afterwards? Cool yes my Harvard speech will be recorded!
Why are they not longterm holds? because its the early stages of the industries development? Theyre mostly scams and pump and dumps, development my ass LOL.
Any plans on doing a seminar anywhere on the West Coast some time soon? Yes hit up Link to timothysykes.com to be added to the earlybird list.
Question - how did you manage to post losses of almost 40% in '06/07 when the market was doing so incredibly well? I'm a short seller for one and second read Link to tim.ly I detail my losses in depth.
Timothy. My mentor. Why your loosing trades show profit in your page ? 4/10 MDBX $23.25 $22.1 $4365. Tell me how you enter at 23.25 and exit at 22.1 making $4365 in profit please. You have to teach me this magic !! It's called short selling you incredible nitwit.
How much money do you make in a year from your DVDs, trading challenge, and subscriber alerts? Link to mixergy.com
I lost 70% on SPLI, 40% on ERBB, and, 40% on MYEC, and 30% on MINE, should i hold? Sorry to hear, they can always come back, but I wouldn't bet on it...gotta learn my Link to tim.ly rule #1 cut losses quickly.
I'm a college senior. Would you recommend me working at an investment bank or tech startup? Do both, make connections everywhere.
What characteristics do you look for when people apply to your "Tim Challenge?" Dedication, ability to follow instructions, hunger for immense wealth.
How many cars do you have? I have 2, a Lamborghini and Porsche.
Is e-gear hard to drive? I have a automatic setup on my cayman s. Nah its easy.
Can you annotate a chart of any instrument with price action or indicators? Yes.
Tim, you have mentioned you have students from outside the US. Have you recommended them any brokers in particular or do you happen to know witch they use? Trading the OTC seems to be a common problem for us folks outside the US. Any input on this would be appreciated. My preferred Link to tim.ly all accept international customers.
Hi Tim, NEWBIE. What brokerage account do you recommend? Thanks Read Link to tim.ly
Actually didn't know that. Thank you for your time Tim. YES!
Can my girlfriend borrow $500 to adopt her dog? Nope.
Hey Tim, I am a Pennystocking Silver subscriber and newbie to trading, and have been studying your teachings for about a month. Thank you for doing this AMA. In your book you say that the most valuable classes you took in college were micro and macro economics. I am an econ major and am curious as to how you apply econ theory to trading. Why do you value those classes so much, and what is the most important economic concept you apply to trading? Cool always important to know supply/demand, that basically sums up all of penny stocks.
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